Politics of focus: Understanding how Roe v Wade was overturned

Despite the continuously eventful world of US politics keeping much of the world enraptured like soap opera audiences, this overturning was not expected.

US politics suffered a seismic shock on June 24 when the Supreme Court overturned the 1973 court decision on Roe v Wade, which established obtaining abortion on request as a basic right for women.

Even in the continuously eventful world of US politics, which keeps much of the world enraptured like soap opera audiences, this overturning was a huge surprise. It was a surprise because until a couple of months ago, almost no political observer anticipated or predicted the overturning to occur so soon.

The overturning was unexpected because structural and institutional factors of politics seem very much against it. There is a solid majority of citizens who oppose the overturning; the Republicans are focused on winning the coming Midterms and 2024 presidential election, and this decision seemingly can only hurt prospects of winning those elections.

All the Republican leaders, including President Trump and Senate Leader Mitch McConell, adamantly proclaimed until a few weeks ago that they were against the overturning. All the new Supreme Court justices recently confirmed by the Republican-held Senate, proclaimed that they regard Roe v Wade as settled law of the land.

It is clear now that they blatantly lied about their true intentions.

However, it is not clear that the Republicans will pay any electoral price for these lies and the drastic curtailment of rights of women. People consider a lot of factors when they pull the levers of vote or desist from voting.

Political identity, bread and butter economic issues, law and order, general direction of the country, are just a few of the most critical factors that influence voting behaviour. Right now, a lot of these factors are working directly against Democrats and in favour of Republicans. Therefore, the Supreme Court decision may not affect the coming elections at all.

Mainly, two theories are getting bounced around among the US political commentators as explanations of how this momentous but unexpected shift came to pass.

According to the first theory, overturning of Roe is a prime example of the effectiveness of long-term, methodical, and relentless political organizing. Overturing Roe v Wade and banning of legal abortion have been prime goals of US religious conservatives ever since the original verdict of 1973. Religious groups have been focused on the issue like a homing missile for decades among all the political turns and twists of different administrations.

They knew that the broader public opinion is not hospitable to overturning Roe and that’s why, rather than focusing on politicians beholden to votes, the political groups focused on changing the judiciary by placing one conservative judge after another in important places at state and federal level.

Church groups, political lobbies, think-tanks, law societies, all worked in tandem for that goal, even though these groups comprised only a minority, although very powerful, within the Republican coalition.

The second theory argues that overturning of Roe v Wade mostly shows the contingent and arbitrary nature of politics. One can trace a direct chain of unexpected events that led to this outcome.

Source: Dhaka Tribune